Is Weather Forecasting Vodoo?

called for rain and thunder storms all week, nary a drop, no thunder,no nothing.

What you do seems like Voodoo

Regards, Bill

P.S Do not think even the computer models can predict the weather, the almanac (sp) is actually more accurate than most forecaters.:)

 

 

Not so fast my friend.  Meteorology may not be a perfect science, but it is no Voodoo.

 

I understand your frustration with a blanket forecast of scattered storms.  Can you imagine how frustrated I am when we can do no better?  No doubt, weather forecasting has improved greatly in the last 10 – 15 years.  The good news, progress towards even more accurate forecasts continues by numerous companies, governmental agencies like NOAA, and on many college campuses.  Within the last few months, we (ABC 7 News) integrated our newest computer weather model.  What makes it valuable to the Bay is its grid size of 4 km.  Measuring weather down to a 4 km grid gives us an advantage in finding all the various Bay microclimates

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You make a good point about climatology.  Many computer weather models use climatology in their algorithms.  In areas like the Bay, with our distinct rainy and dry seasons, this works very well at times.  In most other parts of the country, not so much.  However, if I was to follow the almanac, I would never forecast wet weather in June.  Our chance of rain is less than 10% on any given June day.  Does that mean “our weather never changes” in the Bay?  No.  Weather is more than just sunshine versus rain. 

 

As for this week’s forecast, we had showers Monday, thundershowers Tuesday, and a rare anticyclonic supercell thunderstorm Wednesday in the East Bay.   The same type of unusual storm that dropped a tornado in Sunnyvale on May 4 of 1999.

 

Our computer models run every three hours.  Since yesterday morning, three runs ago, the forecast has changed.  The models now push the showers 75 to 100 miles to our south.

 

My best,

 

Mike