"Stop Changing the Forecast"

Stop reporting this HOT weather that we are supposedly having for a period of time or at least stop changing the report....It's 2009, your technology should be a lot better than how you are reporting the weather, Mike Nicco

John Coppola
jcgreek1@gmail.com

 

Mr. Coppola,

 

I'm not exactly sure what you are asking me to do or not do.

 

Can you please elaborate?

 

Thank you, 

 

Mike

Mike Nicco

KGO-TV Morning & Midday Meteorologist

mike.nicco@abc.com

Follow my Weather Blog

 

 

 

stop changing your forecast

 

Mr. Coppola,

It’s my job every morning to make a new forecast for the next 7 days.  You’ll notice, rarely does the forecast dramatically change for the next three days.  For days 4 – 7 our computer models are better than they used to be but not as good as days 1 – 3 of the forecast cycle.  If you see dramatic swings, it’s usually during days 4 – 7.  Even then, I make it a point not to flip-flop every time the computer models do. 

 

My meteorology degree is based on theoretical applications.  Part of my training was learning the mathematical and physical properties each model uses; those create their individual strengths and weakness.

 

The weather forecasting computer models I rely on run every 6 hours.  That’s two new model runs from the time I leave work until I arrive the next morning.  If the models pick up on something new or if I see something new, it’s my job to report this also.  When severe weather strikes, I have the option of using a computer model which updates every hour. 

 

I’m trying to understand why you would want me to stop doing my job.  Is there something specific you saw or part of the forecast you don’t agree with?

 

Thank you,

 

Mike

Mike Nicco

KGO-TV Morning & Midday Meteorologist

mike.nicco@abc.com

Follow my Weather Blog

 

 

Perfect Pet - Friday, September 11, 2009

VIGO

 

Consider adopting a senior pet like VIGO!  Seniors have so much to offer compared to their younger counterparts; already trained and mild manners to name a few.  Also, seniors can often be a better match for many households.  Vigo may be 9 but there’s plenty of bounce in this guy!  Vigo knows “sit” and “shake” and is ready to learn even more tricks. Yes, you CAN teach an older dog new tricks!

 

Vigo’s mild manners can make him ideal for a family and he even doesn’t mind cats!!

 

For a limited time you can adopt a senior pet (8yrs and older) at the Marin Humane Society for only $65!

 

Visit Vigo at the Marin Humane Society

171 Bel Marin Keys Blvd,

Novato, CA  94949

 

You can also call Adoptions at 415.506.6225.

Kathleen's California Arrival Anniversary

Hurricane Kathleen - September 7-12, 1976

 

September 10^th is the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, but his day marked rare tropical activity in Southern California in 1976.  Tropical Depression Kathleen crossed the Mexican border into California during the evening of September 10, 1976.  The storm had been a hurricane prior to grazing the western tip of central Baja California.  Kathleen was the first system since 1939 not to weaken into a remnant low (circular shape still, with less storm production and slower winds) prior to reaching California.

 

Kathleen dumped a record 14.76 inches on the southern slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, and 10.13 inches accumulated on Mount Laguna from the 10th to the 11th.  Other parts of the Southern California mountains received 6 to 12 inches while the desert floor received 1 to 5 inches.  Runoff from the heavy rain destroyed 70% of the homes in Ocotillo.   Ocotillo sits atop an alluvial fan.  The topography created a wide path of raging floodwaters which piled a layer of sand nealry 9 feet high in some places.  Three to six people drowned in the mud and water.

 

  

 

Kathleen was first noted 300 miles southwest of Acapulcolate on September 5th.  Moving rapidly west-northwest, the system became a tropical depression (up to 38 mph winds) on the night of the 6th while 360 miles southwest of Manzanillo.  Slowing down on the 7th, the cyclone strengthened into a tropical storm (39 – 73 mph winds) on the afternoon of the 7th.  Intensification continued and on the 9th Kathleen became a hurricane (at least 74 mph winds) as it accelerated northward to the west of Mexico.  As it moved quickly over cool waters near the west coast of Baja California, the system
regained tropical storm status during the night of the 9th.  The cyclone clipped the Point Eugenia peninsula as it moved north at over 35 mph.  Its next landfall was in Ensenada just prior to 4 am local time.

Spare the Air Friday

High pressure to our southeast steers the Central Valley thermal trough toward the Bay Area today and tomorrow. The extra heat combined with light winds will increase the production of ground-based ozone. The air quality could be unhealthy for those most sensitive today.

Spare the Air

Lack of California Hurricanes

Hi Mike,

I read your facts many days. Why do the hurricanes come up north to Baja but don’t come farther north?

Thanks,

Marty Sorensen

Good Morning Marty,

Great question, nice hearing from you.

We’ve been lucky in California, not a single land-falling hurricane.  One reason is our cool ocean water.  Think of tropical weather systems as heat engines.  When water vapor condenses it releases heat.  Storms use this heat to enhance their updrafts and strengthen.  Air warmer than its surrounding naturally rises, adding humidity, which makes it lighter, enhances the vertical ascent.  For this to occur, we look for an ocean temperature of at least 80°.  The warmest water temperature I can find along the California coast is 74.5° at Oceanside.

 

The second reason is our prevailing wind.  The cold ocean water causes air to sink over the Eastern Pacific.  This creates an area of high pressure with winds blowing in a clock-wise direction.  Being on the eastern side of this high pressure means our winds blow from the Northwest.  This will steer most storms to our south and west. 

 

 

 

Some storms, like Jimena last week, do move north.  For Jimena, another variable weakened it before reaching California.  It traveled over land, losing its warm ocean water and the mountainous region of Baja California also disrupted its wind flow.

 

Hope this helps.

Mike Nicco

KGO-TV Morning & Midday Meteorologist

mike.nicco@abc.com

Viewer Convicted of Harassing Weathercaster

Wind direction terminology has always confused those outside of Meteorology.  

Thought you might find this interesting. 

Fight Over "onshore" and "offshore" winds definition.

Temperature Forecasting

Hi Mike—I have noticed a big discrepancy between the forecast high temperature and the actual high on some recent hot days.  For example, yesterday the forecast was 81 and the actual was 94, a difference of 13°F.  Over the weekend, it was even worse:

 

• Friday, forecast 87, actual 102
• Saturday, forecast 86, actual 101

 

(I live in Los Altos, which is not shown on the Merc’s weather page, so I interpolate between Mountain View and Palo Alto.  The above data are for Palo Alto.) 

 

Now, I can see why it is hard to predict the exact temperature, but the difference between 87 and 102 is the difference between a pleasantly hot summer day and a life-threatening condition.  I’m certainly glad I decided not to take the 15-mile hike I was considering.  At the age of 66, I might not have made it back!  What’s up?

 

James G. Christenson, PhD

Vice President

Comparative Biosciences, Inc.

 

Hi James,

 

I believe you are referring to the forecast in the Mercury News?  That is provided by WeatherUnderground, whereas, I provide the weather blurb. 

 

I do understand your concern, though.  Please know I take my job as a forecaster and communicator very seriously.

 

You can take that hike tomorrow and any time this weekend.   http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=weather&id=6863613

 

My best,

 

Mike

Mike Nicco

KGO-TV Morning & Midday Meteorologist

mike.nicco@abc.com

 

Thanks.  I was referring to the Merc and I understand you are not responsible for the whole page.  I did not mean to take you to task for it.  I just wondered if you have an expert opinion about why they are so far off.  Isn’t this stuff kind of standardized?

 

Standardized, unfortunately, no, not even close.

 

We have so many different variables to watch and weigh when making a forecast and among these we have to weigh them differently depending on where we are forecasting.  That’s why we break our forecast into 7 microclimates and, also, why you’ll find dozens of forecast models.  Every forecaster is trying to find the correct combination.   

 

On those days you mentioned, WeatherUnderground either trusted the wrong computer model or interpreted the data incorrectly.  It happens.  

 

Use yesterday for an example.  The three computer models I rely on most forecasted a high of 68°, 72° and 82° for San Francisco.  Compared to the models, I valued a different parameter and forecasted 84°.  I was close but still off.  The high was 88°.     

 

I hope this helps.  If you have more questions, please ask.  We can go into the computers models even further if you want.

 

My best,

 

Mike

 

Mike Nicco

KGO-TV Morning & Midday Meteorologist

mike.nicco@abc.com

That’s OK.  Thanks.  I am going to take this up with WeatherUnderground.  I enjoy your daily blurb in the Merc.