Rainfall Totals - Through Noon

Record setting rain continues. So far San Rafael has shattered their previous October 13th total of 2.04" from 1957.

Today's Storm - Update

FLASH FLOOD WARNING until Noon for fire scared areas from the Lockheed fire.

Flooding is most likely in fire scared areas, especially near the Lockheed fire.

Green shaded areas will be find the most widespread creek and small stream flooding and also ponding on the roadways.

Rainfall forecast, the same around the Bay, expecting more in the mountains.

Rainfall forecast, nearly the same as from yesterday's model runs. 

  
The cold front pushes the last batch of heavy rain east during the evening rush hour.

Wind speeds will stay fast for a few hours after the cold front passes. 

Computer models are crunching the latest data righ now.  I will have an updated forecast on our Midday Show at 11 AM.

Tomorrow's Storm Update

Today is the last day to prepare for our impending winter-like storm.  You may want to find shelter for anything you don't want to get wet or blow away.  While it is early in the Autumn season, gutters and drains may need to be freed of debris.

 
The National Weather Service issued the first warning for our upcoming storm.  Areas you see highlighted in yellow will experience 35 - 55 mph winds with gusts peaking in the 60 - 70 mph range.  Winds of this speed will snap weak tree limbs which could land and snap power lines.  As the rain saturates the ground, we could see a tree or two topple along with a power lines.   

This storm brings two bouts of heavy rain with light rain between.  The strongest rain falls during the morning and evening commutes.

The rainfall range is quite extensive thanks to our topography.  The Bay, Coast, and valleys will experience 1 - 3" with 3 - 5" in the North Bay Mountains and 4 - 6" in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  Flooding is possible with debris flow near burn areas from recent fires.

 
Use the legend on the right side of the graphic for more specific rainfall totals. 

The National Weather Service issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Tuesday.  Flooding is possible in the areas shaded in green. 

The rain tapers quickly Wednesday morning, but the clouds and cool conditions will linger all day.  

Tuesday's Storm - Saturday's Update

What was once Super Typhoon Melor in the Western Pacific Ocean is now near Alaska's Aleutian Islands. This powerful storm will bring gusty winds and excessive amounts of rainfall Tuesday. Urban flash flooding is possible along with mudslides near burn scars.

The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement describing their forecast. I tend to agree with what they are thinking at this time.

Here is a look at two of our computer models. The graphics show the area of low pressure at 5 PM Tuesday and the amount of rain that will fall in the 6 hours leading up to 5 PM. The first graphic from the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model forecast is still showing less rain than the GFS (Global Forecast System, picture 2) model. What caught my eye is just how much closer they are compared to model runs just 12 hours ago. The NAM's rainfall forecast is closing on the GFS and, therefore, giving it more credence.

Tuesday's Storm - Friday's Update

Storm moves in Monday night and affects our neighborhoods for 36 to 48 hours.  The strongest part hits Tuesday morning and lasts through Tuesday evening.  

Weather models are producing 1 - 3" of rain in our lower elevations with 3 - 5" in our higher ones.

 

Winds will blow at a steady 25 - 35 mph hour with gusts nearing 40 in our lower elevations and possible faster winds over the bay water.  Higher elevations could experience winds near 60 mph. 

With the system still several days away, I will be updating the forecasting and bring more specific conditions for your neighborhood in the coming days.
  
 

Fall Foliage & Sierra Weekend Forecast

Higher elevations are peaking with spotty areas past peak.  Lower valleys are seeing a rapid increase in color change.  This weekend's weather will be optimal for viewing.  Next week's storm brings gusty winds which will strip leaves from the trees. 

 

California Fall Color Guide

 
 Rock Creek, Mono County (Nick Souza)

Rock Creek Lake, Mono County (Nick Souza)

Rock Creek Lake Boat Dock (Nick Souza)  

Maple Tree

Plumas County Visitors Bureau - Quincy

 
Sweet Gum

Plumas County Courthouse - Quincy

 
Maple

Quincy (Joe Willis)

Maple

Quincy (Joe Willis)

Oregon Grape

Quincy (Joe Willis)

Dogbane

Quincy (Joe Willis)

Past Peak - North Lake Road

Eastern Sierra (Jared Smith)

Past Peak - Lake Sabrina

(Jared Smith)

Mist Falls - Eastern Sierra

(Jared Smith)

Loop on South Fork

(Jared Smith)

Tuesday's Rain Forecast - Thursday's Update

"Melor" is moving away from Japan this morning.  You can already see the transformation from a tropical to extratropical cyclone.  "Melor's" cyclonic (counter-clockwise) circulation is pulling cooler, drier air into its southern periphery.  The northern cloud shield is starting to move northeast in response to the jet stream.

By Tuesday, "Melor" is bringing rain to the West Coast.

 
You will find the greatest amount of moisture from behind the warm front to just ahead of the cold front.  This warm moist air (warm air advection rain) has the potential to create long lasting, heavy rains.  I will start talking totals the closer we get to the event. 

Tuesday's Rain Forecast - Wednesday's Update

Thankfully, Typhoon Melor is no longer a Super Typhoon.  Still, it is the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane.   

 
This is the GFS (Global Forecast System) model forecast for 11 PM Tuesday, October 13th.  This is what is left of Typoon Melor.  By this time, it is no longer a warm core tropical cyclone.  It morphs into an extratropical cyclone which gets its energy from the temperature differences within the storm. 

Still looks like the majority of the rain covers Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. 

The forecast for the storm transformation along with the distance traveled and advanced time frame will create changes in the forecast.  As is usually the case, the computer model is already slowing the system's arrival.  

Another update Thursday.
  

President's Cup - Today's Forecast

 
It was only a matter of time; our coastal weather can not stay clear of clouds for very long.  Look for an increase in clouds as the afternoon unfolds.  The developing sea-breeze holds temperatures in the lower 60s for today’s festivities. 

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Practice Round for Professionals
8 a.m. -- Gates open to public
4 p.m. -- The Presidents Cup Opening Ceremonies
6 p.m. -- Gates Close

The President's Cup

Rain Next Tuesday?

Well Lloyd Lindsay Young eluded to the possibility of some really wet weather next week on KGO-AM, why?

Whats your take on that?

Bill

Hi Bill,

The computer models show moisture from Typhoon Melor near Japan riding the jet stream across the Pacific Ocean and into the Bay a week from today. 

The first graphic shows the storm nearing the west coast Monday.

The second graphic shows the rain on Tuesday.  This is a 6-hour rain forecast.  If you look at the legend on the left, it shows an impressive rainfall over Washington, Oregon, and Northern California.

Being nearly 7 days away, many parameters can and will change.  My main concern is the system moving north and missing us.  A 100 mile swing north means we are left cloud, cool, and dry. 

I’ll be watching it for you.

Mike