Forecasting Rain in May, "It's laughable."

Chance of rain in late May? Really?! I mean, come on, give me a break! I am so tired of you guy relying on your fancy computer models instead of using common sense. May be you shoul do just that. It's laughable.

Alexander

 

Hello Alexander,

Please help me understand your logic.    

To me, common sense would dictate that I interpret all available data and make my forecast based on it.  If I believe it, why should I not report it? 

Have you heard the saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get."

My best,

Mike Nicco

Tuesday's 24-Hour Rain Totals

Yesterday's cold front had the potential to bring an entire May's worth of rain in one day.  Other than Berkeley, we fell short..

(Yesterday - May Average - Percent of Average - City)
 0.61"  0.61" 100%   Berkeley
 0.50"  0.66"  76%   Fremont
 0.32"  0.57"  56%   Oakland
 0.19"  0.35"  54%   Palo Alto
 0.26"  0.51"  51%   Ocean Beach
 0.35"  0.79"  44%   Half Moon Bay
 0.19"  0.46"  41%   Los Gatos
 0.13"  0.43"  30%   Livermore
 0.12"  0.44"  27%   San Jose
 0.08"  0.38"  21%   San Francisco
 0.03"  0.43"   7%   Redwood City
 0.01"  0.47"   2%   Antioch

LARGEST TORNADO STUDY UNDER WAY

VORTEX2 (Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2) is an $11.9 million program, founded primarily by the National Science Foundation, aimed at intercepting and studying tornadoes in the most active area in the world, our Great Plains. 

From May 1st to June 30th, more than 100 researchers from across the world are crossing the 900 miles of plains from West Texas to southwestern Minnesota in search of tornadoes.  The unprecedented fleet of mobile radars and other cutting-edge tools is in the second and final year of the most ambitious tornado study. 

The researchers hope to answer these critical questions:
1. How do tornadoes form?
2. Why do some supercell thunderstorms spawn tornadoes while others do not?
3. Why are some tornadoes violent and long-lasting while others are weak and short-lived?
4. How much detail can we see inside a tornado?
5. How strong are winds near the ground?
6. How do they cause damage?
7. Can forecasts be improved?
8. Is it possible to improve forecast accuracy (now around 25%) and warn residents a half hour or more in advance?

In order to answer these questions, the flotilla of instruments used include 10 mobile radars, more than three dozen portable surface weather stations, and a robotic 12-foot propeller aircraft to probe the edges of severe storms. 

The instruments have a resolution as fine as 100 feet and time steps as small as 10 seconds.  Their main focus is to track the rapidly changing contrasts in winds and temperatures along with precipitation in and near tornadoes.  Most of the time, standard stationary observations are too far away.  Also, researchers will capitalize on the unusual mass of mobile instruments to collect data on other major weather events in the region like squall lines.

The collaborative international project will examine in detail how tornadoes form and the patterns of damage they cause. The findings are already leading to a greater understanding of tornadoes, and scientists expect they will ultimately improve tornado warnings and short-term severe weather forecasts.

Participants in VORTEX2 come from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Center for Severe Weather Research (CSWR), Rasmussen Systems, NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (CIMMS), Pennsylvania State University, Texas Tech University, Lyndon State College, Purdue University, North Carolina State University, the universities of Oklahoma, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Nebraska, Environment Canada, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

VORTEX2 Home Page

Daily Updates

Perfect Pet - Friday, May 14th

 

Best Buddy Beagles

Meet Deb and Bruce!  What a bundle of fun these two-year-old Beagle buddies are.  You love their good-natured and fun personalities.  They will make the perfect companions for anyone who enjoys their animated play style.

Beagles are typically curious and have a tendency to follow their own noses.  Be sure to provide plenty of enrichment in the form of daily mental and physical exercise.

These close pals would prefer to be adopted together. If you are interested in learning more about Bruce and Deb, call the Marin Humane Society Adoption Center at 415.506.6225.

KGO Radio

While you are in the car this morning, join me, Jennifer Jones-Lee and Jon Bristow on 810 KGO-AM for a fun weather forecast.  

The way it stands now, I will be filling-in for Lloyd Lindsay Young next Friday also. 

MONDAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS

Another unusually chilly late-season storm system brought a rare rain to the Bay Area.

I forecasted rain totals of .10 - .25" in our lower elevations with .25 - .50" in our higher terrain.

The Results:

0.37" - Ukiah
0.28" - Cloverdale
0.20" - Fairfield
0.18" - Antioch
0.18" - Morgan Hill
0.17" - Napa
0.16" - Redwood City
0.16" - San Francisco
0.15" - Gilroy
0.14" - Richmond
0.14" - Santa Rosa
0.13" - Monterey
0.13" - Novato
0.13" - San Rafael
0.12" - Santa Cruz
0.12" - Watsonville
0.11" - Oakland
0.09" - Livermore
0.09" - San Jose
0.08" - Moffett Field
0.05" - Los Gatos
0.04" - Half Moon Bay
0.04" - Pacifica
0.03" - Salinas
0.02" - Danville

Hurricane Katrina Hoax

The Sky Before Katrina Struck...  

Whoever took these pictures did an awesome job.
And whoever said Katrina was 'awesome and terrifying' is telling the truth. Wow, take a look at this ....

These pictures were made by a man in Magee, MS where the eye of the storm passed thru- what an experience. Magee is 150 miles North of Waveland, Mississippi where the Hurricane made landfall. The dance with Katrina, part of her beauty as she left destruction on her exit. They are  remarkably dramatic...

 

he following picture was taken from the third story balcony of Saint Stanislaus College located next door to Our Lady of the Gulf church in Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi on the morning of August 29th, 2005.

This is believed to be the initial tidal wave from Hurricane Katrina. The tidal wave was approximately 35 to 40 feet high. When it slammed  into the beach front communities of Bay Saint Louis and Waveland,  Mississippi to completely destroy 99% of every structure along the beach for 9 miles and over a mile inland. The destruction only started there. The flooding that continued inland destroyed the contents of all but 35 homes in these two communities of approximately 14,000 people.

 
 
This is about the 4th or 5th time I’ve seen this collection of photos.  Each time it’s tied to catastrophic weather event of which it has no relation.

 

The first picture is the leading edge (shelf clouds) of a thunderstorms taken somewhere in the Midwest.

 

Picture 2:  Rapidly rotating supercell thunderstorm with a wall cloud extending to near the ground from the mesocyclone within the storm.  Supercell thunderstorms are not likely with hurricanes.  Also, looks like it is hovering over a corn field.

 

Picture 3:  A low precipitation supercell thunderstorm with a rapidly rotating mesocyclone, usually found in the high plains.

 

Picture 4:  Most tornadoes produced by hurricanes are hard to see due to the heavy rain.

 

Picture 5:  Lowering wall cloud from a supercell thunderstorm.

 

Picture 6:  Thunderstorm…

 

Picture 7:  Looks like the same storm as Picture 3, just taken from a different angle.  Also, the rolling hills, lack and type of trees suggest this is not Mississippi.

 

Picture 8:  Same as Picture 3, just zoomed out.

 

Picture 9:  Could be legit, looks more like a Tsunami.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

Mike

Gulf Coast Oil Platform Pictures

These pictures were taken during the last moments of the DW Horizon before it sunk of the coast of Louisiana.

 

 

 This picture really caught my attention.  Look to the right of the main smoke plume and you may notice a large tube with a smaller one between this vortex and the smoke plume.  The intense heat from fires can create their own updrafts with cold air feeding new oxygen into the fire as it replacesthe rapidly rising hot air.