In what seems to be a right of October, our one strong storm struck the Bay Area last weekend.
Looking back, the model I chose to base my forecast on had a good handle on the timing and strength. Thankfully, out of the three main models I use, I chose the correct one.
As is typical with these type of storms (north to south movers), the South Bay received less than forecasted. North to south moving storms tend to have west to southwest winds in the precipitation shield. This wind direction causes the air mass to lift over the Santa Cruz Mountains. This lift creates the greatest instability and strongest rains in the mountains. As the wind downslopes into the Santa Clara Valley it stabilizes and the rain intensity decreases.
The Results:
3.17" - Ukiah
2.41" - Clear Lake
1.89" - Cloverdale
4.92" - Santa Rosa
2.45" - San Rafael
1.53" - Napa
1.15" - Fairfield
0.53" - Concord
0.56" - Livermore
1.05" - Oakland
0.43" - Oakland Airport
0.58" - Fremont
0.33" - Hayward
1.14" - San Francisco
0.64" - San Francisco Airport
0.75" - Pacifica
0.64" - Half Moon Bay
0.40" - Redwood City
0.19" - Moffett Field
0.24" - San Jose
0.45" - Morgan Hill
0.51" - Gilroy
0.50" - Hollister
2.23" - Santa Cruz
0.53" - Watsonville
0.37" - Salinas
0.49" - Monterey